Name: Metallurgical coal, the new thermal?
Brand: Wood Mackenzie
SKU: 149450
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Author: Wood Mackenzie

Insight 12 January 2023

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            <h3 class="mega store_featured_content_extrabold store_font_black">Report summary</h3>
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Metallurgical coal markets have seen their share of exciting market disruptions over the last decade. However, the increase in these black swan events since the start of the pandemic has been exhausting for market participants. The latest one that has market participants scratching their heads is the crossover of metallurgical coal into thermal markets, as benchmark Newcastle high-calorific value seaborne thermal coal is higher priced than benchmark metallurgical coal for the first time in history. This dynamic provided some support to metallurgical coal prices from July-October 2022, in a period of lower metallurgical coal demand. Non-typical crossover coal from the US was sold on the export market to European utilities to test the technicalities and bolster stocks for emergency power. Since then, crossover coal buying – particularly in Europe – cooled, causing support for metallurgical coal prices to return to traditional support mechanisms.</div>
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        Australia
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        Russia
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        United States
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        Australian crossover coal producers
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        US crossover coal producers
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        Conclusion and upside risk
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        <li class="list__item push-quarter--bottom"></li><li class="list__item push-quarter--bottom">Base case price forecasts for thermal and metallurgical coal benchmarks</li><li class="list__item push-quarter--bottom">High case price forecast for thermal coal benchmarks compared to base case metallurgical coal benchmarks</li>
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