Insight

Millennium Bulk Terminals – what happens to seaborne thermal coal if more port capacity is available from the US West Coast?

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Report summary

The Millennium Bulk Terminals (Millennium) is a proposed coal export facility located on the Columbia River in Longview Washington. The Lighthouse Resources operated facility would provide an alternative to export Powder River Basin (PRB) coal which currently is exported via western Canadian ports. Since its proposal almost seven years ago the project has been held up by stiff legal challenges from state agencies Native American tribes and environmental groups and remains in the permitting phase. With significant permitting risk attached to the development of this project it was not included as part of our recent base case forecast. However with its state EIS released in April we consider it prudent to examine the potential impact of the project.

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  • Document

    cms millennium insight june 2017.xls

    XLS 1.72 MB

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    Millennium Bulk Terminals – what happens to seaborne thermal coal if more port capacity is available from the US West Coast?

    PDF 2.26 MB

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Table of contents

Tables and charts

This report includes 11 images and tables including:

Images

  • The Millennium Bulk Terminals
  • The Millennium Bulk Terminals
  • Total US exports of PRB, Bull Mountain and Western Bituminous coals through any port (Mt)
  • Top 3 PRB importers (Millennium High)
  • Top 3 PRB importers (Millennium Low)
  • Net gain and loss (Millennium High)
  • Millennium Bulk Terminals – what happens to seaborne thermal coal if more port capacity is available from the US West Coast?: Image 7
  • Supply and demand of Indonesia thermal coal (Mt)
  • Example of competitive margin comparison in 2029 - US WC to S China vs Indonesia to S China (5100 kcal/kg GAR equivalent)
  • Australian thermal production from possible and probable mines (Mtpa)
  • FOB Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg NAR, market (real US$/t)

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