Insight

Mongolian coal exports to China surge - but can they keep growing?

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Report summary

Mongolia's coking coal exports surged 70% in 2016 reaching 16.5 Mt on a washed basis after four years of stagnation. The rapid growth is testament to the extraordinary potential of Mongolia's South Gobi province and has market participants wondering whether this is the start of the country's long awaited renaissance. In our view maintaining exports at current levels will be a challenge. Mongolia's supply potential is high but the recent spike has been driven by the shortage of premium coking coal in the international and domestic Chinese market rather than a structural change in Mongolian competitiveness.

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Table of contents

Tables and charts

This report includes 9 images and tables including:

Images

  • Mongolian coking coal exports by month
  • Mongolian HCC FOB price vs DDP to Baotou steel mill price
  • Map showing Mongolian and Chinese coal mine locations and major price hubs
  • Exports by coal type – 2008-2016
  • Price competitiveness of HCCs to Tangshan
  • Chinese coking coal supply and demand balance and Mongolian coking coal imports (2015 - 2017), Mt
  • Global HCC cash cost curve delivered to Tangshan

Tables

  • Production by mine
  • Mongolian coal exports to China surge - but can they keep growing?: Table 2

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