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Mongolian coal exports to China surge - but can they keep growing?

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03 April 2017

Mongolian coal exports to China surge - but can they keep growing?

Report summary

Mongolia's coking coal exports surged 70% in 2016, reaching 16.5 Mt on a washed basis, after four years of stagnation. The rapid growth is testament to the extraordinary potential of Mongolia's South Gobi province, and has market participants wondering whether this is the start of the country's long-awaited renaissance. In our view, maintaining exports at current levels will be a challenge. Mongolia's supply potential is high, but the recent spike has been driven by the shortage of premium coking coal in the international and domestic Chinese market, rather than a structural change in Mongolian competitiveness.

Table of contents

  • 2016: a year to remember
  • Location and quality have disadvantaged Mongolian coal
  • So where did the extra coal come from, and where was it used?
  • But, will it last?

Tables and charts

This report includes 9 images and tables including:

  • Mongolian coking coal exports by month
  • Mongolian HCC FOB price vs DDP to Baotou steel mill price
  • Map showing Mongolian and Chinese coal mine locations and major price hubs
  • Exports by coal type – 2008-2016
  • Production by mine
  • Mongolian coal exports to China surge - but can they keep growing?: Table 2
  • Price competitiveness of HCCs to Tangshan
  • Chinese coking coal supply and demand balance and Mongolian coking coal imports (2015 - 2017), Mt
  • Global HCC cash cost curve delivered to Tangshan

What's included

This report contains:

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    Mongolian coal exports insight.xls

    XLS 1.18 MB

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    Mongolian coal exports to China surge - but can they keep growing?

    PDF 466.08 KB

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    Mongolian coal exports to China surge - but can they keep growing?

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