New Queensland government supports Galilee Basin coal development, but is it enough? Report

Insight 30 March 2015

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Report summary

We expect thermal coal exports to start from the Galilee Basin by late 2018. This is based on our assessment of Adani's Carmichael project, which has progressed its approvals and is in the process of securing finance. The newly elected Queensland Labour government has also come out in support of the Galilee Basin, announcing a dredging solution for port expansion at Abbot Point. We envisaged the dredging solution to be a major stumbling block when the Liberals were ousted in the January 2015.

Executive summary
Exports feasible by late 2018
Marketable production for the Galilee Basin (million tonne)
Location maps
Favourable costs, margins and incentive pricing
- Economic assumptions
Risk assessment and some game changers
- Finance
- Rail, dredging and mining licence timings
- Competing projects
Conclusion

Tables and charts

This report includes the following images and tables:

New Queensland government supports Galilee Basin coal development, but is it enough?: Image 1
Galilee Basin detailed map
Seaborne export thermal energy adjusted cost curve 2025

Seaborne operating margin curve 2025
Incentive prices for Australian thermal projects at 15% IRR (energy adjusted to 6322 kcal/kg gar)
New Queensland government supports Galilee Basin coal development, but is it enough?: Table 1