North America coal 10-year investment horizon outlook
Demand: The energy crisis prompts near term delays in coal capacity retirements, but eventually, competition from natural gas, renewables and decarbonisation efforts erode demand. Supply: Production picked up and some metallurgical coal crossed over into the thermal market towards the end of 2022. The US will continue supplying the seaborne markets long term as supply to domestic EGUs shrinks. Prices: In 2022, prices hit their peak driven by tight markets and the war in Ukraine. Looking ahead, prices are on a long-term downward trajectory with a couple exceptions. Investments: No utilities are adding coal-fired generation and mine expansion projects are few and far between. Mines with higher costs or depleting reserves face closure. The full report, Excel files with data from 2022-2050 and the updated North America Coal Markets tool are available now.