North America coal long-term outlook H2 2018: Competition drives decline Report

Commodity Market Report 20 December 2018

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Report summary

The North American coal market is in a steady, structural decline. Demand has peaked as natural gas and renewable generation continue to grow throughout the forecast period (2019-2040). Coal generation declines 65% over the next 21 years as coal generating units continue to be phased out despite the Trump Administration's attempts to make a case for retaining and expanding the coal fleet. Coal generation will be replaced by natural gas, wind and utility scale solar generation - growing 36%, 316%, and 1,306% respectively over the forecast period to 2040.

Key Findings
- Near-term 2019 to 2021: Excess natural gas production
- Mid-term 2022 to 2027: Steady, balanced market
- Long-term 2028 to 2040: Renewable growth
Key Issues and Uncertainties

Tables and charts

This report includes 5 images and tables including:

Near-term (2019-2021) forecast of US coal supply and demand (Mst)
Mid-term (2022-2027) forecast of US coal supply and demand (Mst)
Long-term (2028 to 2040): Renewable growth
US coal price forecast (Real 2018 US$/st)
US supply/demand balance (Volume - Mst, Prices - Real 2018 US$/st)

What's included

This report contains:

North America coal long-term outlook H2 2018: Competition drives decline

ZIP 4.00 MB
CMS_Executive_Summary_December.xls

XLS 197.00 KB
NACMS 2018 H2 LTO.pdf

PDF 3.38 MB