Commodity Market Report

North America coal long-term outlook: H2 2018 No Federal Carbon Policy Case

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Why buy this report?

Understand what the future of the US coal market might look like in the absence of a US carbon policy. Our base case assumes a flat carbon tax will be in place from 2028. Here we model an alternative.

What key questions does this report answer?

  • How will the pace of wind and solar development change in the absence of a US carbon policy?
  • What would North American coal demand be with no carbon tax?
  • How would this scenario impact Henry Hub prices?

13 March 2019

North America coal long-term outlook: H2 2018 No Federal Carbon Policy Case

Report summary

This No Carbon Policy sensitivity to the North America Coal H2 2018 long-term outlook assumes a future without any US federal carbon policy. We remove the impact of a carbon tax beginning in 2028 and examine the long-term impact. Coal plants are still on the decline but do not retire as quickly as in our base case. Renewable generation build will continue to increase, but at a slower pace and with lower levels overall.

Table of Contents

  • The Federal Carbon Case Vs. No Federal Carbon Case
  • Carbon regulation milestones and timeline
  • Assumptions and key changes from H2 2018 Federal Carbon Case
  • No Federal Carbon Case Results
        •   Key messages
        •   Carbon prices
        •   Power generation
        •   Capacity Changes
        •  Natural Gas outlook
  • Coal outlook
  • Energy prices
  • Carbon emissions

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