Commodity Market Report

North America coal long-term outlook: H2 2018 No Federal Carbon Policy Case

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*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below

Why buy this report?

Understand what the future of the US coal market might look like in the absence of a US carbon policy. Our base case assumes a flat carbon tax will be in place from 2028. Here we model an alternative.

What key questions does this report answer?

  • How will the pace of wind and solar development change in the absence of a US carbon policy?
  • What would North American coal demand be with no carbon tax?
  • How would this scenario impact Henry Hub prices?

This No Carbon Policy sensitivity to the North America Coal H2 2018 long-term outlook assumes a future without any US federal carbon policy. We remove the impact of a carbon tax beginning in 2028 and examine the long-term impact. Coal plants are still on the decline but do not retire as quickly as in our base case. Renewable generation build will continue to increase, but at a slower pace and with lower levels overall.

Table of Contents

  • The Federal Carbon Case Vs. No Federal Carbon Case
  • Carbon regulation milestones and timeline
  • Assumptions and key changes from H2 2018 Federal Carbon Case
  • No Federal Carbon Case Results
        •   Key messages
        •   Carbon prices
        •   Power generation
        •   Capacity Changes
        •  Natural Gas outlook
  • Coal outlook
  • Energy prices
  • Carbon emissions

Table of contents

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Tables and charts

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What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    NACMS_No_Carbon_Case_H2_2018.pdf

    PDF 552.63 KB