North America coal long-term outlook H2 2019: Utilities turn away from coal Report

Commodity Market Report 23 December 2019

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*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below

Report summary

The US domestic coal industry has turned a corner. More and more electric utilities are responding to pressure from stockholders and customers to take a more proactive stance on climate change. As Integrated Resource Plans (IRPs) across the country were rolled out by utilities this year, a clear shift in position with regard to coal-fired generation was noted. Most IRPs included plans to eliminate or drastically reduce coal-fired generation by 2040 – some by 2030. The stepped-up retirement plans for coal-fired generation as well as an increase in renewable generation weigh heavily on coal demand in this forecast. Whereas our H1 2019 forecast projected a slight rise in coal consumption in the mid term as natural gas prices rose, we now project steady decline as more – and earlier – coal retirements have been announced.

Near-term (2019 to 2023): Retirements, cheap gas and renewables
- Near-term Summary
Mid-term (2024 to 2027): Stable exports
- Mid-Term (2024-2027) Summary
Long-term (2028 to 2040): A Federal climate plan
- Long-term (2028-2040) Summary

Tables and charts

This report includes the following images and tables:

Near-term (2019-2023) forecast of US coal supply and demand (Mst)
Mid-term (2024-2027) forecast of US coal supply and demand (Mst)
Long-term (2028-2040) forecast of US coal supply and demand (Mst)
US coal price forecast (Real 2019 US$/st)
US supply/demand balance (Volume - Mst, Prices - Real 2019 US$/st)

What's included

This report contains:

CMS_Executive_Summary_H2_2019_Base Case.xls

XLS 154.00 KB
CMS_Basin_Level_Analysis_H2_2019_Base Case.xls

XLS 1.41 MB
CMS_Prices_Coal_Gas_and_Emissions_H2_2019_Base Case.xls

XLS 720.00 KB

North America coal long-term outlook H2 2019: Utilities turn away from coal

PDF 859.75 KB
CMS_Demand_Analysis_H2_2019_Base Case.xls

XLS 502.00 KB
CMS_Total_Coal_Production_H2_2019_Base Case.xls

XLS 668.00 KB
CMS_Unit_Coal_Choices_H2_2019_Base Case.xls

XLS 5.14 MB
CMS_Unit_Coal_Economics_H2_2019_Base Case.xls

XLS 36.09 MB
Long-term Outlook H2 2019.pdf

PDF 2.22 MB