Commodity Market Report
North America coal long-term outlook H2 2019: Utilities turn away from coal
Report summary
The US domestic coal industry has turned a corner. More and more electric utilities are responding to pressure from stockholders and customers to take a more proactive stance on climate change. As Integrated Resource Plans (IRPs) across the country were rolled out by utilities this year, a clear shift in position with regard to coal-fired generation was noted. Most IRPs included plans to eliminate or drastically reduce coal-fired generation by 2040 – some by 2030. The stepped-up retirement plans for coal-fired generation as well as an increase in renewable generation weigh heavily on coal demand in this forecast. Whereas our H1 2019 forecast projected a slight rise in coal consumption in the mid term as natural gas prices rose, we now project steady decline as more – and earlier – coal retirements have been announced.
Table of contents
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Near-term (2019 to 2023): Retirements, cheap gas and renewables
- Near-term Summary
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Mid-term (2024 to 2027): Stable exports
- Mid-Term (2024-2027) Summary
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Long-term (2028 to 2040): A Federal climate plan
- Long-term (2028-2040) Summary
Tables and charts
This report includes 5 images and tables including:
- Near-term (2019-2023) forecast of US coal supply and demand (Mst)
- Mid-term (2024-2027) forecast of US coal supply and demand (Mst)
- Long-term (2028-2040) forecast of US coal supply and demand (Mst)
- US coal price forecast (Real 2019 US$/st)
- US supply/demand balance (Volume - Mst, Prices - Real 2019 US$/st)
What's included
This report contains:
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