North America coal short-term outlook August 2019: where did summer demand support go?

As US coal producers search for a silver lining in this summer market, they seem to only be finding grey skies. Mild temperatures have shaved the peak off summer demand. The juggernaut of associated gas production from the Permian has sent gas prices to almost below US$2/mmbtu at Henry Hub in August. International demand has weakened, with a strengthening US dollar and declining demand in Europe as low-priced gas plagues coal generation abroad as well. With little outlet for relief, there has been a reckoning for coal producers, particularly thermal players, over the last few months with announced bankruptcies and production cuts. Cloud Peak, Blackjewel, and Blackhawk remain under bankruptcy and most are auctioning assets. Alliance, Peabody, and Contura have all announced curtailments in production. More is yet to come, as producers struggle to make it through until a stronger winter demand (and hoping it is a cold one).