North America coal short-term outlook June 2023

For the first time ever, wind and solar generated more power than coal during the first five months of this year. Coal-fired EGUs are on track to generate 50% less power than they did in 2015, just eight years ago. Although we expect hotter temperatures to drive up coal generation over the summer, domestic EGU coal consumption will still lag behind production. The imbalance between supply and demand is evidenced by swelling stockpiles. As inventories peak, deliveries scheduled for later this year will be pushed into 2024. Producers will also look to export more volume to the seaborne market if they can. But eventually, the stockpile levels will be unsustainable, and producers will have to respond.