Commodity market report
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27 Pages

North America thermal coal long-term outlook H1 2015

North America thermal coal long-term outlook H1 2015

Report summary

2014 draws to a close with a discouraging outlook for the coal markets – for both producers and consumers. Producers face several more years of low prices and weak demand. Consumers must contend with continuing deliverability issues, over-contracted positions as natural gas producers lower prices to move volume into the power markets and even the future viability of some coal suppliers. 

What's included?

This report includes 12 file(s)

  • North America thermal coal long-term outlook H1 2015 PDF - 1.49 MB 27 Pages, 4 Tables, 18 Figures
  • CMS Census Region Analysis June.xls XLS - 1.67 MB
  • CMS Basin Level Analysis June.xls XLS - 1.29 MB
  • North America Coal Markets Highlights H1 2015.pdf PDF - 1.11 MB
  • CMS Demand Analysis June.xls XLS - 487.00 KB
  • CMS Environment and Emissions Data June.xls XLS - 9.18 MB
  • CMS Executive Summary June.xls XLS - 13.79 MB
  • CMS Prices Coal Gas and Emissions June.xls XLS - 714.50 KB
  • CMS Total Coal Production June.xls XLS - 465.00 KB
  • CMS Unit Coal Choices June.xls XLS - 3.76 MB
  • CMS Unit Coal Economics June.xls XLS - 16.02 MB
  • LTO Graph ZIP - 9.05 MB


Global coal markets are facing extraordinary challenges and uncertainties. Factors such as global overcapacity, weakening demand and falling prices have created cautious investors. These factors have caused delays and cancellations of many mine and infrastructure projects, as well as lower growth rates at others.

This Thermal Coal Market Long Term Outlook report gives global and regional coal producers, consumers, transporters and investors detailed supply, demand and price forecasts for the coal industry, covering all the key domestic markets in North America, China and India.

Use this report to gain a better understanding of market dynamics, including revenue and demand potential for different coals. It will also help you identify trade patterns and changes affecting the thermal coal markets.

Wood Mackenzie is the only coal industry service provider that offers a market outlook integrated with other sector analyses, including macroeconomics, coal supply, steel markets and gas and power markets. Our coal analysts are based in the markets they analyse. They work with objective, proprietary data to help you maximise your current and future investments.

From market dynamics to trade patterns, we give you confidence in your strategic planning.

  • Executive summary
  • Prices
  • Economic outlook
  • Policy and regulation
    • Base case Environmental policy assumptions
    • Scrubber status of EGUs (GW)
    • CO2 price comparison (US$/metric tonne)
  • Demand
  • Supply
    • PRB
    • ILB
    • NAPP
    • Colorado/Utah
    • CAPP
    • Other
  • Infrastructure
    • Domestic
    • Exports
  • Risks and uncertainties

In this report there are 22 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Executive summary: Table 1
  • Prices
    • Market coal price forecast factors (Real 2015 US$)
  • Economic outlook
    • Economic outlook: Image 1
    • Regional GDP growth - 13-Year CAGR (2012-2025))
  • Policy and regulation
    • Policy and regulation: Table 1
    • Policy and regulation: Image 1
    • Policy and regulation: Image 2
  • Demand
    • Electricity Demand Outlook
    • Generation Mix Outlook
    • Demand: Image 3
    • Demand: Image 4
    • Demand: Image 5
    • Demand: Image 6
    • Demand: Image 7
    • Demand: Image 8
    • Demand: Image 9
  • Supply
    • Mine cash cost reduction
    • 2015 US thermal coal production cuts/delays announced in 2015 YTD
    • US thermal coal supply outlook (Mst)
  • Infrastructure
    • Infrastructure: Image 1
    • US coal exporting capacity by port
  • Risks and uncertainties
    • Assumed probability, timing and impact of risks*
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