The COP21 Paris agreement requires ratification by at least 55 countries representing 55% of total greenhouse gas. Will the US lead by example and ratify the agreement? Politics and law will ultimately decide.
At issue is the definition of the word treaty and the unsettled nature of the limits to US presidential executive action. It is a near-certainty that President Obama will ratify the agreement. But it is equally likely that opponents will mount legal challenges to this action. Settling these conflicts includes a political component which complicates matters. The November presidential and congressional elections are key to the timing of resolution of this matter. They are also key to understanding the level of financial commitment the US will provide to global emission reduction.
We calculate the likelihood of permanent ratification of the treaty to be about 45% although there is a much smaller likelihood that Congress will fully fund the announced financial pledge.
This report includes 2 file(s)
Permanent US ratification of the COP21 agreements not a certainty PDF - 340.09 KB 6 Pages, 2 Tables, 1 Figures
Decision tree prob.xls XLS - 88.00 KB
This Coal Insight report highlights the key issues surrounding this topic, and draws out the implications for those involved.
Participants, suppliers and advisors can use it to look at the trends, risks and issues within the coal industry and gain an alternative point of view when making decisions.
Wood Mackenzie is the only coal industry service provider that offers a market outlook integrated with other sector analyses, including macroeconomics, coal supply, steel markets and gas and power markets.
Our coal analysts are based in the markets they analyse. They work with objective, proprietary data to help you maximise your current and future decision making. From market dynamics to trade patterns, we give you confidence in your strategic planning.
Wood Mackenzie's clients include every major player in the global energy, metals and mining industries. We are recognised as a leading authority by international and national energy, metals and mining companies, leading financial institutions, governments and government agencies. We work with a range of diverse teams within our clients, from strategy and policy makers, business developers and market analysts, through to corporate finance, risk teams and investors.
Having Wood Mac analysis is table-stakes. Others are nice to have.
Analyst Metal Mining Producer
Wood Mac has the highest quality data and is demanded by our staff.
Portfolio Manager Integrated Oil Company
Others can provide data but we value the quality of the Wood Mac analysis above other sources.
As the trusted source of commercial intelligence for the world's natural resources sector for more than 40 years, we empower clients to make better strategic decisions with objective analysis and advice. Find out more...
Insight | Aug 2016
Permanent US ratification of the COP21 agreements not a certainty
Have questions? Just let us know how to contact you and we will respond to you as soon as possible.