Insight
The Coronavirus: Assessing the impacts on bulks
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
The Coronavirus epidemic emanating from Wuhan in central China has had tragic consequences and started to undermine domestic economic sentiment. While it is impossible to accurately predict the scale of this unfolding health crisis, the outbreak is a new wildcard for bulks demand in 2020. We think the restriction on labour movement will be a key mechanism affecting consumer demand and industrial production. Prolonged restrictions will undoubtedly be transmitted to markets for energy, industrial products, and raw materials. However, the experience of SARS in 2003 suggests the impact on overall economic activity in 2020 may be modest, with demand patterns in each bulks market being delayed rather than destroyed.
Table of contents
- Event
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The Coronavirus could hurt an otherwise positive near-term outlook
- Restricted labour movements will hurt steel demand
- What can we learn from the SARS epidemic experience?
- Strong steel production, and high inventories could see steel prices pushed lower this time.
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Impacts on bulks
- Metallurgical coal
- Iron Ore
- Thermal coal
- Increased likelihood of economic stimulus later in the year
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
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Key economic indicators in 2003Rebar prices 2003Rebar inventories (2018-2020)
What's included
This report contains:
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