Commodity Market Report
Thermal coal markets short-term outlook August 2021
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*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
It’s been another record-breaking month for coal prices supported by hot summer demand in the northern hemisphere. The resurgence in coronavirus cases seems to have only added supply concerns without much demand disruption. China’s benchmark coal prices hovered at above RMB1,000/t with the domestic production ramp-up delayed since July. Seaborne coal supply responses have improved marginally. How long will current prices stay? European coal-to-gas switching economics and low inventory have justified the high gas prices, but the commissioning of Russia's new gas pipeline later this year may change the picture. Will we see a knock-on impact on coal prices like 3 years ago?
Table of contents
- High/low scenarios
- China – record-high QHD price will result in 14% year-on-year increase in seaborne thermal coal imports in 2021
- India – strong demand momentum continues
- Vietnam: weak hydro supports coal but surge in Covid cases poses downside risk
- Australia – Covid Delta variant spread yet to hit mining activity
- Indonesia – government-imposed export bans to have minimal impact
- Russia – rail disruption continues to limit export growth
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
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Low and high cases for Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg at confidence intervals of 5%, 33%, 66% and 95% (US$/t)China domestic coal productionIndia coal-fired generation
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Power generation vs fossil fuel share %Price difference between average import price vs 5800 NAR spot CFR South KoreaJapan monthly power generationJapan coal-to-gas switching curveAustralia thermal coal exportsAustralia coal exports to IndonesiaIndonesia production and exports (Mt)
What's included
This report contains:
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