Commodity Market Report

Thermal coal markets short-term outlook July 2021

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30 July 2021

Thermal coal markets short-term outlook July 2021

Report summary

Despite concerns over new coronavirus waves, the seaborne coal market doesn’t see an end to its record-breaking price rally. Strong summer demand, gas price spikes and nuclear outages have supported coal generation, yet supply responses haven't been strong enough to stablise prices. We've heard unconfirmed news about China's latest measures to control its domestic coal prices, including the accelerated approval of production capacity and lifting of restrictions on coal imports. China's new supply impact will not kick in immediately, sending strong support to seaborne prices into August. Its ban on Australia coal is unlikely to ease, keeping high-ash coal at attractive discounts against Newcastle benchmark due to limited washing capacity.

Table of contents

  • High/low scenarios
  • China – imports increase 40% in June month-on-month
  • India – coal generation up, but imports down due to domestic displacement
  • Australia – coal exports stage recovery as prices surge
  • Indonesia – producers looking to up output in the second half but may be constrained
  • Russia – rail constraints remain for coal exports

Tables and charts

This report includes 9 images and tables including:

  • Low and high cases for Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg at confidence intervals of 5%, 33%, 66% and 95% (US$/t)
  • India coal-fired generation and imports for power usage
  • South Korea coal-to-gas switching (to July 2021)
  • Japan coal-to-gas switching (to July 2021)
  • Price difference between average import price vs 5800 NAR spot CFR South Korea
  • South Korea bituminous coal imports by supplier
  • Australia thermal coal exports
  • Australia thermal coal exports tradeflow change
  • Indonesia production and exports (Mt)

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Thermal Coal Markets Short Term Outlook Data July 2021.xlsx

    XLSX 518.68 KB

  • Document

    Thermal coal markets short-term outlook July 2021

    PDF 980.61 KB