Commodity Market Report

Thermal coal markets short-term outlook June 2021

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30 June 2021

Thermal coal markets short-term outlook June 2021

Report summary

Seaborne coal prices continued their bull run throughout June, reaching a level not seen since 2011. Coal demand grew as the northern hemisphere entered the summer peak demand season, and the lack of sufficient supply response drove prices higher. China's recent decision to relax coal import controls has the potential to exacerbate or prolong the market tightness if extended past June. The question of how quickly both seaborne and domestic Chinese coal supply can return will define the market balance over summer.

Table of contents

  • High/low scenarios
  • China – strong demand for seaborne import results in seaborne price soaring
  • India – coal demand recouping backed by improving economic activity
  • South Korea – coal-to-gas switching economics support voluntary cuts
  • Vietnam – intense heatwave provides strong support to imports despite cost competition with domestic production
  • EMEARC – tight gas availability and high gas prices support coal burn
  • Australia – supply continues to underperform despite a recovery in June exports
  • Indonesia – finally a supply response?
  • Russia – infrastructure constraints remain
  • Colombia – Glencore to acquire 100% of Cerrejon

Tables and charts

This report includes 5 images and tables including:

  • Low and high cases for Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg at confidence intervals of 5%, 33%, 66% and 95% (US$/t)
  • South Korea coal-to-gas switching incentives
  • Australia thermal coal exports
  • Annualised change in thermal coal production in NSW by operator
  • Indonesia production and exports (Mt)

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Thermal Coal Markets Short Term Outlook Data June 2021.xlsx

    XLSX 487.07 KB

  • Document

    Thermal coal markets short-term outlook June 2021

    PDF 960.76 KB