Commodity Market Report
Thermal coal markets short-term outlook October 2021
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*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
China's price intervention worked to slightly cool, hot international prices in October. Despite a continued strong demand for coal, buyers have suddenly become hesitant to lock in contracts when high calorific value coal prices appear to be on the decline, which has softened prices further. However, winter continues to loom head for the Northern Hemisphere and La Nina weather pattern predictions threaten to send prices soaring once again.
Table of contents
- High/low scenarios
- China – China’s bituminous coal import has returned to normal
- India – Coal supply issues to power sector expected to ease-off gradually in Q4
- Europe – Intermittent renewables and high gas prices expected to keep coal demand strong
- Australia – cashing in while the sun shines, but watch out for wet weather
- Indonesia – Drier weather in October allowing increased output
- Russia – fire at SUEK’s 24 Mtpa Vanino terminal adds to ongoing supply tightness
- South Africa – Exports fall as coal railings continue to struggle
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
- Low and high cases for Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg at confidence intervals of 5%, 33%, 66% and 95% (US$/t)
- China’s bituminous coal import by key origins, Mt
- Australia thermal coal exports
- Australia thermal coal export margins
- Indonesia coal production and exports
- Indonesian mines 7 day average rainfall (mm/week)
What's included
This report contains:
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