Thermal coal markets short-term outlook October 2021 Report

Commodity Market Report 29 October 2021

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*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below

Report summary

China's price intervention worked to slightly cool, hot international prices in October. Despite a continued strong demand for coal, buyers have suddenly become hesitant to lock in contracts when high calorific value coal prices appear to be on the decline, which has softened prices further. However, winter continues to loom head for the Northern Hemisphere and La Nina weather pattern predictions threaten to send prices soaring once again.

High/low scenarios
China – China’s bituminous coal import has returned to normal
India – Coal supply issues to power sector expected to ease-off gradually in Q4
Europe – Intermittent renewables and high gas prices expected to keep coal demand strong
Australia – cashing in while the sun shines, but watch out for wet weather
Indonesia – Drier weather in October allowing increased output
Russia – fire at SUEK’s 24 Mtpa Vanino terminal adds to ongoing supply tightness
South Africa – Exports fall as coal railings continue to struggle

Tables and charts

This report includes the following images and tables:

Low and high cases for Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg at confidence intervals of 5%, 33%, 66% and 95% (US$/t)
China’s bituminous coal import by key origins, Mt
Australia thermal coal exports