Underinvestment in coal: are producers crying wolf or is there a true need for coal investment?

The coal project pipeline is notionally strong, with sufficient capacity available under our base case. But poor performance of operating mines is reducing confidence in the ability to meet demand in the short term. Moreover, project investment is suffering under expanding lead times, and a revised capital allocation model that is prioritising dividends and debt reduction over production growth. Problems around investment levels highlight the difficulty in managing expectations of investors, communities, miners and end users as we navigate the energy transition. The lack of investment has potential for even greater impact on metallurgical coal markets specifically. This is particularly true toward the end of the decade once the need for new mines appears.