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US West ports' permit denial delays PRB and increases prices

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02 September 2014

US West ports' permit denial delays PRB and increases prices

Report summary

On 18 August 2014, Oregon Department of State Lands (DSL) rejected an important permit for Ambre Energy's Port of Morrow export facility.  This permit failure increases the possibility that all port construction will ultimately be rejected along the US West Coast.   We have undertaken analysis of the impact on thermal coal seaborne markets of failure to construct these ports. 

Table of contents

  • Executive Summary
  • Recent events
  • If US West Coast ports are not built, the market will consume both more lignite and more high rank coal
  • Absent US West Coast ports, demand for US PRB coal will be delayed but not eliminated
  • Without US West Coast access to PRB coal, prices for most thermal coals will rise in the next decade
  • Winners and losers
  • Notes about assumptions and variables

Tables and charts

This report includes 8 images and tables including:

  • Coal ports in the US
  • Change in seaborne thermal coal demand by rank (Mt)
  • Change in seaborne thermal coal demand by country (Mt)
  • Change in seaborne high rank thermal coal demand by country (Mt)
  • Change in total seaborne low rank thermal coal demand by country and rank (Mt)
  • Change in FOB price of key marker prices (US 2014$/t)
  • Change in key delivered prices (US 2014$/t)
  • FOB price forecast for PRB and Newcastle (spot) coals by case, (US 2014$/t)

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    US West ports' permit denial delays PRB and increases prices

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