Insight
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6 Pages

US West ports' permit denial delays PRB and increases prices


US West ports' permit denial delays PRB and increases prices

Report summary

On 18 August 2014, Oregon Department of State Lands (DSL) rejected an important permit for Ambre Energy's Port of Morrow export facility.  This permit failure increases the possibility that all port construction will ultimately be rejected along the US West Coast.   We have undertaken analysis of the impact on thermal coal seaborne markets of failure to construct these ports. 

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • US West ports' permit denial delays PRB and increases prices PDF - 501.72 KB 6 Pages, 0 Tables, 8 Figures
  • NoUSWestPort data.xls XLS - 220.50 KB

Description

This Coal Insight report highlights the key issues surrounding this topic, and draws out the implications for those involved.

Participants, suppliers and advisors can use it to look at the trends, risks and issues within the coal industry and gain an alternative point of view when making decisions.

Wood Mackenzie is the only coal industry service provider that offers a market outlook integrated with other sector analyses, including macroeconomics, coal supply, steel markets and gas and power markets.

Our coal analysts are based in the markets they analyse. They work with objective, proprietary data to help you maximise your current and future decision making. From market dynamics to trade patterns, we give you confidence in your strategic planning.

  • Executive Summary
  • Recent events
  • If US West Coast ports are not built, the market will consume both more lignite and more high rank coal
  • Absent US West Coast ports, demand for US PRB coal will be delayed but not eliminated
  • Without US West Coast access to PRB coal, prices for most thermal coals will rise in the next decade
  • Winners and losers
  • Notes about assumptions and variables

In this report there are 8 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive Summary
  • Recent events
    • Coal ports in the US
  • If US West Coast ports are not built, the market will consume both more lignite and more high rank coal
    • Change in seaborne thermal coal demand by rank (Mt)
    • Change in seaborne thermal coal demand by country (Mt)
  • Absent US West Coast ports, demand for US PRB coal will be delayed but not eliminated
    • Change in seaborne high rank thermal coal demand by country (Mt)
    • Change in total seaborne low rank thermal coal demand by country and rank (Mt)
  • Without US West Coast access to PRB coal, prices for most thermal coals will rise in the next decade
    • Change in FOB price of key marker prices (US 2014$/t)
    • Change in key delivered prices (US 2014$/t)
    • FOB price forecast for PRB and Newcastle (spot) coals by case, (US 2014$/t)
  • Winners and losers
  • Notes about assumptions and variables
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