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6 Pages

Will mine closures in the Illinois Basin result in a coal shortage in 2017?


Will mine closures in the Illinois Basin result in a coal shortage in 2017?

Report summary

As coal demand is projected to rise, the Illinois Basin (ILB) looks particularly vulnerable for an under supply situation due to  all of the recent mine closures. 

What's included?

This report includes 1 file(s)

  • Will mine closures in the Illinois Basin result in a coal shortage in 2017? PDF - 286.24 KB 6 Pages, 1 Tables, 5 Figures

Description

This Coal Insight report highlights the key issues surrounding this topic, and draws out the implications for those involved.

Participants, suppliers and advisors can use it to look at the trends, risks and issues within the coal industry and gain an alternative point of view when making decisions.

Wood Mackenzie is the only coal industry service provider that offers a market outlook integrated with other sector analyses, including macroeconomics, coal supply, steel markets and gas and power markets.

Our coal analysts are based in the markets they analyse. They work with objective, proprietary data to help you maximise your current and future decision making. From market dynamics to trade patterns, we give you confidence in your strategic planning.

  • 20% of Illinois Basin mine capacity shuttered in two years
  • Higher natural gas prices should result in greater demand for ILB coal next year
  • Stockpile adjustments needed before buyers return to the market
  • Growth in ILB export demand is another wildcard
  • Latent capacity in the ILB is available but miners need to be re-called
  • Coal supply from other regions in 2017 will be limited but sufficient
  • Conclusion

In this report there are 6 tables or charts, including:

  • 20% of Illinois Basin mine capacity shuttered in two years
  • Higher natural gas prices should result in greater demand for ILB coal next year
    • Henry Hub: history and forecast
  • Stockpile adjustments needed before buyers return to the market
    • Basin stockpiles (average) vs. days burn
    • Basin stockpile change
  • Growth in ILB export demand is another wildcard
    • ILB domestic price vs. export netback
    • Illinois Basin netback prices into ARA
  • Latent capacity in the ILB is available but miners need to be re-called
    • ILB shuttered mine production and capacity compared to demand
  • Coal supply from other regions in 2017 will be limited but sufficient
  • Conclusion
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