Insight

Will mine closures in the Illinois Basin result in a coal shortage in 2017?

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Report summary

As coal demand is projected to rise, the Illinois Basin (ILB) looks particularly vulnerable for an under supply situation due to  all of the recent mine closures. 

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    Will mine closures in the Illinois Basin result in a coal shortage in 2017?

    PDF 286.24 KB

Table of contents

  • 20% of Illinois Basin mine capacity shuttered in two years
  • Higher natural gas prices should result in greater demand for ILB coal next year
  • Stockpile adjustments needed before buyers return to the market
  • Growth in ILB export demand is another wildcard
  • Latent capacity in the ILB is available but miners need to be re-called
  • Coal supply from other regions in 2017 will be limited but sufficient
  • Conclusion

Tables and charts

This report includes 6 images and tables including:

Tables

  • Illinois Basin netback prices into ARA

Images

  • Henry Hub: history and forecast
  • Basin stockpiles (average) vs. days burn
  • Basin stockpile change
  • ILB domestic price vs. export netback
  • ILB shuttered mine production and capacity compared to demand

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