2023 CCUS Cost Update: factors affecting levelised cost (LCOCCUS) to 2030 and beyond Report

Commodity Market Report 29 March 2023

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Report summary

Near-term capex and energy inflation notwithstanding, CCUS costs are projected to drop substantially in real terms, though each project is different. Based on our risked-analysis of current global projects in development and our view of future growth, we project global capture capacity to increase more than 7-fold in the next 10 years. While the world determines whether and how to incentivize carbon capture to meet climate objectives, CCUS project developers are working to maximize abatement per dollar of cost.

Each CCUS project is unique, but rules of thumb can help conceive or identify projects that are actually optimized for cost
The more functionality, detail, and real-life project data incorporated into the model, the better the estimates
If estimating CCUS costs of a specific project with a generic model is a mug’s game, what’s the purpose of our model?
Cost structures across capture, transport, and storage are evolving differently
With costs in real terms projected to decrease in the coming years and decades, emitters may postpone CCUS project builds by perhaps 5-10 years

Tables and charts

This report includes 4 images and tables including:

LCoCCUS sensitivity example
CO2 shipping cost estimations for a project with 2023 final investment decision
Comparison of three hypothetical 1.0 Mtpa greenfield capture projects from petrochemical ethane steam crackers
Example: impact of FID timing on real LCOCCUS (capture)