Substitution of oil in Asia’s non-transport sector – How much more and how fast?

Diesel/gasoil demand in the non-transport sector remains above 3 Mb/d even out to 2025. In our view, diesel/gasoil faces the most risk of substitution, if infrastructure developments for power and natural gas networks take place faster than our forecast, primarily in China. This can have a material impact on Asia's diesel/gasoil balances. NOCs in China and India, which are building the most refining capacity in Asia, could face a situation of over-supply, if we see a faster pace of substitution.