Turkey energy markets long-term outlook 2019

Turkey's energy consumption will increase by 21% from 2019 to 2040. The largest and fastest growing section of the mix will be oil, symptomatic of a growing demand for personal vehicles and underpinned by robust economic growth. That is despite recent economic turmoil laying bare the fragility of the Turkish economy in the near term, which saw imported commodity prices spike. Major winners in the short term will be coal, mostly domestic, which will receive a boost driven by government incentives in an attempt to reduce the energy import bill that has spiralled in response to the plummeting value of the Turkish Lira. Longer term, as the government continues to pursue greater self sufficiency in the energy mix, renewable power will experience significant growth. However, despite increasing their penetration, renewables - and nuclear power - will not grow fast enough to reduce gas demand, ensuring gas retains its position as the second-most consumed fuel throughout the forecast.