Argentina gas and power long-term outlook H1 2020

After six straight years growing domestic production, Argentina’s gas market now faces a change in direction. Gas price controls, out of date tariffs and exchange rates, and payment delays from gas buyers – all amid the uncertainty of an economic crisis and pandemic – are causing producers to reduce investment. In response, the government is currently assessing an auction to contract up to 70 Mcmd of local distribution and thermal power demand, with the expectation producers will then resume E&P investments, but it won’t be enough due to price caps imposed in the auction. The reduction in drilling causes domestic production to fall in 2020 for the first time since 2014, when tight and offshore gas projects increased production, followed by Vaca Muerta. Argentina’s gas and power market landscape has changed dramatically, and in this outlook we assess the effects coronavirus and price controls are having on the future gas balance, trade, infrastructure investment and gas prices.