Can Algeria resurrect its gas export business?

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19 July 2021

Can Algeria resurrect its gas export business?

Report summary

Algeria is Africa’s largest gas producer but its gas export business has underperformed. Exports have slumped 20% since 2018 and market share in its core markets has shrunk 10%. There is scope for exports to partially recover over the next two years if high spot gas prices persist. But volatile and unpredictable export volumes are set to continue. The report outlines the current export business, diagnoses its issues, and discusses options for long-term success. The impact of getting it wrong could be severe: oil and gas account for over 40% of the state budget and 95% of foreign earnings.

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
  • Africa’s largest gas producer
  • Algeria has lost market share in recent years
  • Domestic gas demand growth shows no sign of abating near term
    • Additional gas production to 2025
    • Medium-term gas supply
    • Falling requirements from core markets Italy and Iberia
    • The risk of remaining oil-indexed in a European market weighted towards hub prices
    • LNG sales remain wedded to Europe
    • Pressure on Algerian fiscal balance
  • Conclusion

Tables and charts

This report includes 7 images and tables including:

  • Algeria’s tightening gas balance
  • Algeria piped exports to Iberia, Italy and pricing differentials (historical)
  • Algeria LNG exports (historical)
  • Algeria pipeline and LNG exports (historical and forecast)
  • Monthly historical gas demand (total)
  • Monthly historical gas demand (gas to power)
  • Cost of Algerian gas supply in 2025

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Can Algeria resurrect its gas export business?

    PDF 1.02 MB