Can Europe get through the winter?

Imports through Nord Stream have been averaging 42% of nominal capacity since Gazprom reduced flows on 14th June blaming an inability to complete compressor maintenance work due to Canadian sanctions. And there is a risk all Russian flows could stop as geopolitical tensions continue to intensify. This insight builds on a previous insight where we addressed the implications of reduced Russian flows and disruptions at Freeport LNG. We consider two scenarios: one where Russian flows continue at current reduced levels and one where Russian flows are stopped altogether in July. We address the following questions: • What are the possible implications of current high prices on gas demand and increased LNG imports in Europe • Where can storage levels get to by the 1st of November? • What will be the implications of a cold winter? • Will demand curtailment measures be required for Europe to get through the winter?