Could a winter crisis boost oil demand?

The Ukraine war and Russia’s squeeze of gas supply to Europe have pushed European gas prices far above coal and oil on an energy equivalence basis. This has put pressure on some countries that have capacity to increase its gas to oil fuel switching. How much could refiners switch if emissions limits and carbon costs were eradicated? What does this mean for the winter ahead and oil demand? Highlights of our analysis on this topic include: • Impact of the European Commission “Save Gas for a Safe Winter” plan on oil use • Economic imperative to switch from gas to fuel oil • Can Japan use its oil-fired power capacity to fill the supply gap? • Does oil demand get a boost from fuel switching?