Commodity Market Report

Canada gas markets long-term outlook H1 2015

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15 July 2015

Canada gas markets long-term outlook H1 2015

Report summary

Canadian market fundamentals have reversed direction in the last six months — AECO prices are down 50% and global oil prices have slumped by nearly 40%, resulting in a declining Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin (WCSB) gas production outlook  for 2016. The productivity improvements and lower service costs will reduce the price floor for WCSB supplies, but there is more competition than ever from  Lower 48 supplies. WCSB production is expected to decline though 2017 before rebounding.

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
    • Overview
      • Impacts to our gas supply outlook in a lower oil price world
    • Regional production overview
      • Alberta
        • Deep Basin rich-gas
        • Montney shale (Alberta sub-plays)
        • Duvernay shale
      • British Columbia
        • Montney shale (British Columbia sub-plays)
        • Horn River/Liard shales
      • Eastern Canada
      • Canadian gas cost outlook
    • Overview
      • Oil sands
    • Power
      • Core industrial
      • Residential and commercial
      • Natural gas vehicles and marine bunkering
    • North America: debottlenecking projects hold down Henry Hub price appreciation
    • AECO: limited upside potential until LNG ramps up
    • Western Canada: LNG projects dictate pipeline development
    • Eastern Canada: hanging onto WCSB a bit longer
    • Overview
    • Piped exports to the US
      • Eastern Canada and US Northeast: hanging onto WCSB a bit longer
      • US Midwest: competing for market share
      • West: filling up the pipe
      • Pacific Northwest and Northern California: capitalizing on discounted AECO
    • Canada LNG exports
      • Pacific Basin demand softens
      • Canadian projects face headwinds
      • Overview of Canadian LNG export projects
        • Major Western Canada LNG projects
        • Eastern Canada LNG projects

Tables and charts

This report includes 24 images and tables including:

  • Oil and gas price outlook
  • Canadian drilling forecast by target
  • Key shale drilling forecast
  • Canadian natural gas demand
  • Provincial gas demand for power
  • Load growth outlook (vs. 2014)
  • North American natural gas prices
  • Western Canada basis outlook
  • Eastern Canada basis outlook
  • Canadian exports by market
  • Net piped exports
  • WCSB dependent LNG export projects
  • Gas demand for oil sands development
  • Natural gas demand for transportation
  • Flow outlook on TransCanada mainline
  • Flows on major US export pipelines
  • Michicagan and Indiana demand by supply area
  • Rest of Midwest* demand by supply area
  • Map - key export infrastructure
  • Small-scale North America West Coast LNG overview
  • Alberta production by key area
  • British Columbia production by key area
  • Major Canadian LNG project overview
  • Eastern Canada LNG project overview

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    NAGS LTO Demand Breakout H1 2015.xls

    XLS 1.49 MB

  • Document

    NAGS LTO Infrastructure H1 2015.xls

    XLS 156.50 KB

  • Document

    NAGS LTO LNG Breakout H1 2015.xls

    XLS 799.50 KB

  • Document

    NAGS LTO NGV Breakout H1 2015.xls

    XLS 665.00 KB

  • Document

    NAGS LTO Price Outlook H1 2015 - highlights version.xls

    XLS 613.50 KB

  • Document

    NAGS LTO Price Outlook H1 2015.xls

    XLS 788.50 KB

  • Document

    NAGS LTO Supply and Demand Balances H1 2015.xls

    XLS 1021.00 KB

  • Document

    NAGS LTO Supply Breakout H1 2015.xls

    XLS 840.00 KB

  • Document

    Canada gas markets long-term outlook H1 2015

    PDF 754.10 KB

  • Document

    Canada gas markets long-term outlook H1 2015

    ZIP 3.88 MB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 89.38 KB

  • Document


    PDF 112.77 KB

  • Document


    PDF 123.92 KB

  • Document


    PDF 107.86 KB

  • Document


    PDF 482.80 KB