Commodity Market Report
Canada gas markets long-term outlook H1 2015
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
Canadian market fundamentals have reversed direction in the last six months — AECO prices are down 50% and global oil prices have slumped by nearly 40%, resulting in a declining Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin (WCSB) gas production outlook for 2016. The productivity improvements and lower service costs will reduce the price floor for WCSB supplies, but there is more competition than ever from Lower 48 supplies. WCSB production is expected to decline though 2017 before rebounding.
Table of contents
- Executive summary
-
Supply
-
Overview
- Impacts to our gas supply outlook in a lower oil price world
-
Regional production overview
-
Alberta
- Deep Basin rich-gas
- Montney shale (Alberta sub-plays)
- Duvernay shale
-
British Columbia
- Montney shale (British Columbia sub-plays)
- Horn River/Liard shales
- Eastern Canada
- Canadian gas cost outlook
-
Alberta
-
Overview
-
Demand
-
Overview
- Oil sands
-
Power
- Core industrial
- Residential and commercial
- Natural gas vehicles and marine bunkering
-
Overview
-
Prices
- North America: debottlenecking projects hold down Henry Hub price appreciation
- AECO: limited upside potential until LNG ramps up
- Western Canada: LNG projects dictate pipeline development
- Eastern Canada: hanging onto WCSB a bit longer
-
Trade
- Overview
-
Piped exports to the US
- Eastern Canada and US Northeast: hanging onto WCSB a bit longer
- US Midwest: competing for market share
- West: filling up the pipe
- Pacific Northwest and Northern California: capitalizing on discounted AECO
-
Canada LNG exports
- Pacific Basin demand softens
- Canadian projects face headwinds
-
Overview of Canadian LNG export projects
- Major Western Canada LNG projects
- Eastern Canada LNG projects
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
- Oil and gas price outlook
- Canadian drilling forecast by target
- Key shale drilling forecast
- Canadian natural gas demand
- Provincial gas demand for power
- Load growth outlook (vs. 2014)
- North American natural gas prices
- Western Canada basis outlook
- Eastern Canada basis outlook
- Canadian exports by market
- Net piped exports
- WCSB dependent LNG export projects
- 12 more item(s)...
What's included
This report contains:
Other reports you may be interested in
Insight
How would energy tariffs affect North American gas markets?
Analysis on the potential impact of Trump Administration's energy tariffs on North American natural gas prices and trade flows.
$950
Insight
Q3 North America LNG projects update: Driftwood fully sold, Plaquemines starts construction and Corpus Christi Stage 3 nears FID
Three projects that could add 30 mmtpa of new capacity
$1,050
Insight
Q1 North America LNG projects update: Sempra nears FID at Costa Azul LNG
The first phase is a mid-scale brownfield redevelopment requiring a quarter of the capex of a large-scale greenfield Gulf Coast project
$1,050
