Canada gas markets long-term outlook H1 2015
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Report summary
Canadian market fundamentals have reversed direction in the last six months — AECO prices are down 50% and global oil prices have slumped by nearly 40%, resulting in a declining Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin (WCSB) gas production outlook for 2016. The productivity improvements and lower service costs will reduce the price floor for WCSB supplies, but there is more competition than ever from Lower 48 supplies. WCSB production is expected to decline though 2017 before rebounding.
Table of contents
- Executive summary
-
Supply
-
Overview
- Impacts to our gas supply outlook in a lower oil price world
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Regional production overview
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Alberta
- Deep Basin rich-gas
- Montney shale (Alberta sub-plays)
- Duvernay shale
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British Columbia
- Montney shale (British Columbia sub-plays)
- Horn River/Liard shales
- Eastern Canada
- Canadian gas cost outlook
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Alberta
-
Overview
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Demand
-
Overview
- Oil sands
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Power
- Core industrial
- Residential and commercial
- Natural gas vehicles and marine bunkering
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Overview
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Prices
- North America: debottlenecking projects hold down Henry Hub price appreciation
- AECO: limited upside potential until LNG ramps up
- Western Canada: LNG projects dictate pipeline development
- Eastern Canada: hanging onto WCSB a bit longer
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Trade
- Overview
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Piped exports to the US
- Eastern Canada and US Northeast: hanging onto WCSB a bit longer
- US Midwest: competing for market share
- West: filling up the pipe
- Pacific Northwest and Northern California: capitalizing on discounted AECO
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Canada LNG exports
- Pacific Basin demand softens
- Canadian projects face headwinds
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Overview of Canadian LNG export projects
- Major Western Canada LNG projects
- Eastern Canada LNG projects
Tables and charts
This report includes 24 images and tables including:
- Oil and gas price outlook
- Canadian drilling forecast by target
- Key shale drilling forecast
- Canadian natural gas demand
- Provincial gas demand for power
- Load growth outlook (vs. 2014)
- North American natural gas prices
- Western Canada basis outlook
- Eastern Canada basis outlook
- Canadian exports by market
- Net piped exports
- WCSB dependent LNG export projects
- Gas demand for oil sands development
- Natural gas demand for transportation
- Flow outlook on TransCanada mainline
- Flows on major US export pipelines
- Michicagan and Indiana demand by supply area
- Rest of Midwest* demand by supply area
- Map - key export infrastructure
- Small-scale North America West Coast LNG overview
- Alberta production by key area
- British Columbia production by key area
- Major Canadian LNG project overview
- Eastern Canada LNG project overview
What's included
This report contains:
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