Chile gas and power long-term outlook H1 2020

Chile’s power demand showed its resilience to the pandemic, as did renewables expansion momentum. Wholesale power prices will continue falling due to oversupply caused by renewables. As there is no need to call power auctions in the next two to three years, renewable developers are relying on the free market to support their projects. This uncontrolled expansion in the power sector is downgrading future Argentinian gas and LNG demand in Chile, despite the planned decommissioning of its coal power plants. Thermal power dispatch will be driven by a gas-to-coal and Argentinian gas-LNG price competition. Meanwhile, Argentina’s capacity to deliver has changed with the current gas prices control imposed by its new administration; its ability to secure firm exports to Chile will be tested.