Insight
China gas and power month in brief: high gas demand, but no supply crunch so far
Report summary
China can breathe a sigh of relief. Accelerated domestic production and improved Central Asian pipeline imports put an end to concerns about tight gas supply becoming a reality this winter. Shale gas is not so doing well – it fell short of its 2018 production target. LNG remains hot and we saw yet another new monthly import record set in November. China has likely imported more in December, but the share of US LNG remains negligible. 2018 was also a strong year for power demand. In addition to an outperforming industrial sector, we saw the electricity substitution initiative become a growth engine. In the first three quarters, China’s fuel-switching programme contributed to one-third of total incremental power demand. Strong demand growth and the rebalancing of the Chinese economy towards the service sector have led to energy decoupling, where GDP growth is less sensitive to changes in power demand growth.
Table of contents
- Executive summary
-
Markets
- Stable pipeline supply improves winter gas balance
- Shale gas falls short of 2018 production target
- Strong demand growth and economic rebalancing support energy decoupling
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Policy
- Clean energy consumption action plan aspires to reduce renewable curtailment
- US LNG into China remains limited after trade talks shift towards de-escalation
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Smog watch
- Air quality improves in 2018 and Beijing implements diesel standards policy
Tables and charts
This report includes 5 images and tables including:
- Monthly gas demand
- Monthly LNG imports
- Beijing AQI
- Monthly power demand
- National renewable curtailment rates: targets vs actual value
What's included
This report contains:
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