China gas markets long-term outlook H1 2015 Report

Commodity Market Report 16 July 2015

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Report summary

Demand growth in China's gas market – averaging c. 15% for the past 5 years – slumped to under 3% year-on-year in the first 6 months of 2015, driving uncertainty around the outlook for Asia Pacific gas prices, the ramp up of contracted LNG volumes, and ultimately the scale of China's gas market.

Executive summary
- Demand weakness expected to persist for the next 2-3 years
- LNG demand under pressure, but Pacific basin pricing spurs demand response
- Lower shale outlook, but additional incentives on the horizon
- City Gate prices may be revised again amid weak demand
- Key data tables
Economic outlook
Policy and regulation
- Gas sector policy & regulation
- Regulatory structure
Demand
- Gas demand overview
- Industrial sector (including feedstock)
- Residential & commercial sector (including space heating)
- Transport sector
- Power sector
- Appendix - Provincial Demand Data
Supply
- Summary
- Domestic gas resources
  - Conventional gas resources
  - Unconventional gas resources
- Appendix: Domestic supply
Costs
- Supply cost stack
- Weighted average cost of gas supply
Trade
- Gas Imports - Pipeline
  - Central Asia Imports
    - Turkmenistan
    - Uzbekistan
    - Kazakhstan
  - Myanmar Imports
  - Russia Imports
    - Russia East
    - Russia West
    - Assumed import pipeline contract pricing
    - Gas Imports - LNG
      - LNG import contracts
Infrastructure
- Domestic gas infrastructure
  - Existing
  - Under development & proposed
  - Gas Import infrastructure - LNG
  - CNOOC
  - PetroChina
  - Sinopec
  - Private entrants
Supply-demand balances
- Contracted Supply
- LNG Supply-Demand Balance
Prices
- Introduction
- China's existing gas pricing structure
  - Gas pricing structure
  - Power pricing
  - Non-power pricing
    - Industry & Commercial
    - Residential
    - Transport
    - Appendix - Provincial End User Prices
Risks and uncertainties