Commodity Market Report
China gas strategic planning outlook
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Report summary
China’s gas demand faces headwinds in 2025 amid global trade challenges and high spot LNG prices. Nevertheless, medium-term growth potential remains substantial. Gas demand will grow from 421 bcm in 2024 to 664 bcm by 2037. Key drivers include gradual economic recovery, carbon trading expansion, gas infrastructure development, and new gas-power capacity additions. In the long run, demand gradually declines to 623 bcm by 2050, as electrification and decarbonisation efforts exert greater influence. All supply sources grow to support the robust gas demand outlook. Domestic output rises by 100 bcm between 2024 and the late 2030s. The growth in pipeline imports will rely on new pipeline projects, which will come online between the late 2020s and late 2030s. LNG imports exceed 100 Mt in 2027, peaking at 150 Mt from 2032 to 2036, and then gradually declining to around 100 Mt by 2050.
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