Insight
China’s 15th Five-Year Energy Plan and Action Plan for Carbon Peaking: implications for the natural gas sector
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
In June and July 2026, China released the 15th Five-Year Plan for Constructing a New-Type Energy System and the Action Plan for Carbon Peaking During the 15th Five-Year Plan Period (2026–2030). Together, these two plans clarify how China is building itself into an energy powerhouse and lay the groundwork for deeper decarbonisation beyond 2030. Non-fossil energy and electrification take centre stage. Latest policies seem to be taking a more cautious approach towards increased gas adoption, unlike in the previous five-year plans that position natural gas as a clean fuel in the energy mix. On a positive note, the plans recognise the role that gas has across all sectors, incentivising development of infrastructure, supply and contracts. Consequently, our view remains one that anticipates continued gas demand growth. However, China’s gas demand growth anticipated ahead of the Middle East conflict will be difficult to achieve, particularly if global LNG prices remain stronger for longer.
Table of contents
- Policy remains conditionally supportive of gas demand growth
- Gas power reaffirmed as a peaker; gas generators must adapt to evolving power markets
- Data centre boom: direct relevance to gas power is very limited
- Coal demand peaking will support non-power gas demand growth, while electrification will slow gas’ growth pace
- LNG-fuelled heavy-duty trucks face rising competition from new-energy trucks
- Shipping: LNG to compete on the same level ground as new energy
- Policy reaffirms the drive to increase gas production without setting a specific target
- Infrastructure expansion proceeds, but the China–Russia Central Pipeline is absent from key projects
- Gas assets must be future-proofed as policy scales up hydrogen and green fuels
- Multi-year gas contracts encouraged
- Policy-induced risks to our China gas demand forecast are skewed to the downside
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
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Fleet Outlook for Heavy-Duty Trucks (H1 2026 Update)Russian pipeline gas flows to ChinaNon-Russian pipeline gas flows to ChinaChina gas demand by sector (April 2026 Strategic Planning Outlook)
What's included
This report contains:
