Europe gas and LNG imports and contracts long-term outlook H1 2019

High LNG availability and Russia’s willingness to maintain market share have pushed European spot prices to multi-year lows. This contrasts with the summer of 2018, characterised by little flexible supply availability. Over the next two years, Europe will continue to benefit from this oversupply of LNG. But as early as 2021, in order to secure sufficient supplies, competition with Asian buyers will intensify. At the same time, Europe’s reliance on imports continues to rise as demand remains resilient and indigenous production maintains its downward trajectory. With the supergiant Groningen field in the Netherlands likely to shut down in the mid-2020s, there is now additional market space in Europe for both incremental LNG and Russian pipeline imports. Meanwhile, the potential for other piped supplies to Europe has weakened. The prospects for export recovery from North Africa look increasingly unlikely, while additional exports beyond Shah Deniz 2 via the Southern Corridor are unlikely.