Commodity Market Report
Europe gas and power markets short-term outlook Q2 2021
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*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
Europe’s gas price rally continues with summer 2021 prices holding close to US$9/mmbtu. Strength in coal and carbon prices provide much of the support as well as the rare net storage withdrawals through the April cold-spell. With summer-winter spreads hovering below €1/MWh, storage inventory levels will reach only 80% by the end of October 2021. Such a low level of storage increases the risk of price spikes during winter but recent news on US sanctions against Nord Stream 2 AG being waived has helped to contain winter prices. Nord Stream 2's start-up and ramp-up will impact the price outlook from winter 2021/22 onwards. We forecast a January 2022 start-up but risks remain. Combined with higher LNG availability to Europe in 2022, prices at TTF will cool back towards US$6.0/mmbtu during summer 2022.
Table of contents
- Coal, carbon and low inventory levels support continued gas price strength
- The main report is in a slidepack format with an enhanced data pack download covering the full European gas balance
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