Europe gas and power markets short-term outlook Q2 2021
Europe’s gas price rally continues with summer 2021 prices holding close to US$9/mmbtu. Strength in coal and carbon prices provide much of the support as well as the rare net storage withdrawals through the April cold-spell. With summer-winter spreads hovering below €1/MWh, storage inventory levels will reach only 80% by the end of October 2021. Such a low level of storage increases the risk of price spikes during winter but recent news on US sanctions against Nord Stream 2 AG being waived has helped to contain winter prices. Nord Stream 2's start-up and ramp-up will impact the price outlook from winter 2021/22 onwards. We forecast a January 2022 start-up but risks remain. Combined with higher LNG availability to Europe in 2022, prices at TTF will cool back towards US$6.0/mmbtu during summer 2022.