Europe gas and power markets short-term outlook Q2 2022 Report

Commodity Market Report 26 May 2022

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Report summary

The risk of Russian supply disruption associated with the war in Ukraine is still the main driver for European gas prices. Nevertheless, Europe has successfully attracted additional LNG cargoes, and storage inventories are sitting in the 5-year average. If payments for Russian gas go through successfully and pipeline flows continue, as we assume, market fundamentals make the case for a downward correction in European gas prices – but prices will need to remain sustained to ensure sufficient LNG imports to balance the market. Read this report to understand: - How low Europe’s gas demand will reduce in the next two years? - Will Europe manage to get enough gas in storage to go through the winter? - How much LNG will Europe need to import to balance lower Russian imports? - What are the risks to TTF in the next 2 years? - Will NBP continue to trade at discount to TTF?

Market fundamentals make the case for price reduction, but Europe remains exposed to lack of flexibility
- TTF will need to remain sustained to ensure enough LNG supply availability
- The main report is in a slidepack format with an enhanced data pack download covering the full European gas balance