Europe gas and power markets short-term outlook Q3 2021

The European gas price rally continues with record summer prices exceeding US$15/mmbtu. Further increases in coal and carbon prices have led the gains. But the tightness in the global LNG market has persisted, forcing gas prices to the upper end of the coal-to-gas switching channel. European prices are forecast to hold above US$15/mmbtu through winter. With storage only expected to reach 78% by the end of injection season - the lowest level since 2013 - upside price risk volatility will be a feature of the market. Start-up of Nord Stream 2 is expected this year but Gazprom's Q4 bookings on the Yamal-Europe pipeline remain low - suggesting any incremental supply gain from Nord Stream 2 may be offset. 2022 will see a rebalancing of the global LNG market as LNG supply growth begins to outpace LNG demand ex-Europe. Combined with a strong ramp-up of Nord Stream 2, prices will moderate back towards the lower end of the coal-to-gas switching channel by next summer, averaging US$9.5/mmbtu.