Europe gas and power markets short-term outlook Q4 2022
As we end 2022, we estimate European gas demand will be down 10% versus 2021 – with industry the hardest-hit. The full impact of sky-high retail energy bills is yet to materialise this winter, but a cold winter brings significant upside for gas demand across Europe. Storage fill this summer surpassed expectations, setting Europe up well for winter. Under normal weather, we think Europe could end winter with 38% of gas in store, despite assuming Ukraine transit flows cease at the end of this year. A continued declining trend for gas demand will help inventories reach 90% ahead of next winer - but all hangs tightly on record-levels of LNG imports continuing to arrive in Europe next year. Read this report to understand: • How are high gas prices impacting different demand sectors across Europe? • How does Europe refill gas storage levels next summer, and beyond? • How much LNG will Europe import in the next two years? • What is the outlook for prices at TTF in the next 2 years?