Europe gas demand long-term outlook H1 2020

Demand destruction will see full year 2020 demand numbers fall below 500 bcm once again in contrast to 2019, which saw demand rebound year-on-year. Industry will account for the bulk of the 2020 loss, but losses will be felt across all sectors. Market space available to fossil fuelled generators will shrink in the early 2020s. As the marginal generator in many instances, gas will lose market share, although its absolute production will stay flat. The EU will struggle to meet its ambitious Green Deal carbon targets – even with coal completely removed from the power sector – without renewed emphasis on hard-to-decarbonise industrial sectors. As a result, gas demand in industry will be under increasing pressure towards the end of the 2030s. Measures to decarbonise energy use in buildings gather pace in the 2030s. Our gas demand view for the residential and commercial sectors shows a decrease of 17.5 bcm by 2040 compared to 2019. LNG will increasingly be adopted in maritime transport.