Europe gas prices long-term outlook H2 2018 Report

Commodity Market Report 11 March 2019

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*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below

Report summary

Our latest H2 2018 outlook for European gas prices across key hubs. European gas prices covered are: TTF (Netherlands), NBP (UK), Zeebrugge (Belgium), PEG (France), GasPool (Germany); PSV (Italy); and VTP (Austria). Data is accessible through the Excel file in the downloads section. Europe will experience two cycles of softening prices. LNG volumes into Northwest Europe finally picked-up in Q4 2018 and show no sign of abating. Hub prices continue to fall, exacerbated by a mild winter and high inventory levels. The market will tighten quickly beyond 2021 but our strong LNG supply FID forecast for 2019-20 will soften prices once again in 2024-26. Liquidity at NBP will be closely watched in anticipation of Brexit on 29 March. Traders may accelerate the shift to TTF if they don't want to take the extra currency risk. However, traders will be attracted by the possibility of increased volatility at NBP - especially given the lack of long-range storage.