European gas price outlook: 12 months ahead (Q1 2015) Report

Insight 19 February 2015

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Report summary

Spot prices are expected to remain sustained at US$8/mmbtu throughout Q1 - following a period of maximised storage withdrawals more Russian gas will be required towards the end of Q1. High storage injection requirement through the summer will result in a growing call on Russian gas, including spot volumes, sustaining prices at US$7/mmbtu, consistent with the coal to gas switching cost in the UK. In Q4, cheaper Russian contract gas will result in European spot prices falling below US$7/mmbtu.

Executive summary
Introduction
- Gas supply Q1 2015 - Q4 2015
  - LNG imports - rest of Europe (included in analysis)
  - LNG imports - Southern Europe (NOT included in analysis)
  - Indigenous gas including Norway
  - Non-Russia pipe imports
- Gas demand Q1 2015 - Q4 2015
  - European demand
  - Ukraine call on gas through Europe
  - Europe spot price outlook

Tables and charts

This report includes 4 images and tables including:

Chart 1 - European net LNG imports
Chart 2 – Contestable demand: European demand* vs indigenous production and non Russian imports
Chart 3 - Russian imports and storage*
Chart 4 - European spot (NBP) vs Russia contract