Fate sealed? Western Canadian supply loses Eastern Canada to the Northeast supply in 2018

The Northeast pipeline projects that have received their certificates will unleash the low-cost Utica and Marcellus gas and intensify supply competition outside of the Northeast. For Canadian gas producers who are most concerned about accessing the Eastern Canadian markets, the outlook for three projects in particular - Northern Access, Rover, and Nexus - is not as straightforward as it may seem. The three Northeast projects would collectively displace more than 1.5 bcfd of WCSB supply in Eastern Canada from today's level. By 2019 more than 80% of the Eastern Canadian market demand will be served by Northeast supply, up from 30% today. Key implications include: Dawn market for the next winter Risk around AECO basis and WCSB production