Commodity Market Report
Global gas market long-term outlook - Asia gas and LNG - H2 2018
Report summary
Key highlights: - Gas demand growth maintained momentum in 2018 and with the boom in China set to continue, our forecast for regional LNG demand is significantly higher this update - Accelerating renewables growth is still expected to reduce longer-term gas to power expectations in several key markets - Average contract indexation levels rose in 2018, hub-indexed deals made a return and contracting activity picks up amongst the major Asian buyers after a long period of muted activity - Forecast now extended to 2040
Table of contents
- Asian LNG demand grew strongly in 2018
- China's strong demand momentum will be maintained although supply and infrastructure availability pose potential constraints
- The boom in Chinese LNG leads to a significantly higher forecast of r egional LNG demand
- Major Asian buyers are returning to long-term LNG procurement in a significant way
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Forecast now extended to 2040
- See the supporting excel spreadsheet for gas demand by country by sector, gas market balances, power demand, generation mix, LNG demand and contracts, pipeline contracts and other key data.
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Regional demand
- China accounts for two thirds of Asia's gas demand growth between 2018 and 2040
- JKT – Japan’s nuclear restart program and South Korean energy policy are key to gas demand
- South Asia – new infrastructure revives latent gas demand
- South East Asia – transitioning from exporter to importer will hit gas demand growth rates
- China gas pipeline trade
- Other proposed transnational gas pipeline trade
- Asia has the worst air quality globally
- Carbon pricing in Japan, South Korea, China and Singapore
- Asia’s population growth slows
- GDP grows, but wide disparities in income levels will continue
- Electricity consumption per person increases – even in wealthy countries
Tables and charts
This report includes 25 images and tables including:
- Asian LNG imports 2017 vs 2018
- LNG import growth from 2018 to 2035
- LNG contracting trends
- Figure 20: Verisk Maplecroft Air Quality Index by region
- Population by country (millions)
- Figure 21: GDP growth by region
- Electricity demand per capita
- Key changes to analysis from H1 2018 publication
- Figure 1: Asia gas demand by sector
- Table 1: Gas demand by country
- Figure 12: Asia gas supply mix
- Figure 16: Asia pipeline trade (excluding SE Asia internal trade)
- Table 2: LNG Trade
- Figure 18: Indicative gas market pricing in Asia
What's included
This report contains:
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