Commodity Market Report

Global gas market long-term outlook - Asia gas and LNG - H2 2018

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14 February 2019

Global gas market long-term outlook - Asia gas and LNG - H2 2018

Report summary

Key highlights: - Gas demand growth maintained momentum in 2018 and with the boom in China set to continue, our forecast for regional LNG demand is significantly higher this update - Accelerating renewables growth is still expected to reduce longer-term gas to power expectations in several key markets - Average contract indexation levels rose in 2018, hub-indexed deals made a return and contracting activity picks up amongst the major Asian buyers after a long period of muted activity - Forecast now extended to 2040

Table of contents

  • Asian LNG demand grew strongly in 2018
  • China's strong demand momentum will be maintained although supply and infrastructure availability pose potential constraints
  • The boom in Chinese LNG leads to a significantly higher forecast of r egional LNG demand
  • Major Asian buyers are returning to long-term LNG procurement in a significant way
    • See the supporting excel spreadsheet for gas demand by country by sector, gas market balances, power demand, generation mix, LNG demand and contracts, pipeline contracts and other key data.
    • China accounts for two thirds of Asia's gas demand growth between 2018 and 2040
    • JKT – Japan’s nuclear restart program and South Korean energy policy are key to gas demand
    • South Asia – new infrastructure revives latent gas demand
    • South East Asia – transitioning from exporter to importer will hit gas demand growth rates
    • China gas pipeline trade
    • Other proposed transnational gas pipeline trade
  • Asia has the worst air quality globally
  • Carbon pricing in Japan, South Korea, China and Singapore
  • Asia’s population growth slows
  • GDP grows, but wide disparities in income levels will continue
  • Electricity consumption per person increases – even in wealthy countries

Tables and charts

This report includes 25 images and tables including:

  • Asian LNG imports 2017 vs 2018
  • LNG import growth from 2018 to 2035
  • LNG contracting trends
  • Figure 20: Verisk Maplecroft Air Quality Index by region
  • Population by country (millions)
  • Figure 21: GDP growth by region
  • Electricity demand per capita
  • Key changes to analysis from H1 2018 publication
  • Figure 1: Asia gas demand by sector
  • Table 1: Gas demand by country
  • Figure 12: Asia gas supply mix
  • Figure 16: Asia pipeline trade (excluding SE Asia internal trade)
  • Table 2: LNG Trade
  • Figure 18: Indicative gas market pricing in Asia

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global gas market long-term outlook - Asia gas and LNG - H2 2018

    ZIP 2.07 MB

  • Document

    Global Gas Asia data 2040.xlsx

    XLSX 794.46 KB