Commodity Market Report
Global gas markets long-term outlook H2 2019: Base Case
Report summary
The much-anticipated LNG oversupply has finally materialised. With 39 Mt of new LNG supply in 2019, there was always going to be too much for the market to absorb. And with Asian LNG demand growth slowing, excess LNG has flooded Northwest Europe and prices have crashed, dragging Asian LNG prices down too. With the prospects for price upside over the next two years extremely limited, the risk of US LNG underutilisation grows. Post-2020, the market will change quickly. A lack of LNG investment decisions from 2015-18 means there will be limited supply growth in early-2020s. European LNG imports will plateau and fall as LNG is diverted to meet the growing Asian LNG demand. This will lead to a brief recovery phase before a new wave of supply sets off the next cycle from 2026/27 driven by record LNG FIDs in 2019/20.
Table of contents
- Other H2 2019 Global Gas Service reports:
-
Pacific Basin - LNG
- LNG imports
- China accounts for two thirds of Asia's gas demand growth between 2018 and 2040
- Middle East
- LNG exports
-
Atlantic Basin - LNG
- Europe
- LNG imports
- LNG exports
-
Americas
- LNG exports
- LNG exports
- North America
- Europe
- Asia
-
Brent oil price forecast (H2 2019)
- Non-OPEC supply continues to increase in the short term
- Coal price assumption
-
Carbon price assumption
- European carbon price
- US carbon prices
Tables and charts
This report includes 25 images and tables including:
- European prices, Henry Hub and US LNG cash costs
- Global price differentials
- Global LNG supply-demand (un)balance
- Global LNG supply and demand delivered to Japan (2040)
- Coal price forecast CFR ARA
- Pacific and Middle East LNG demand by market
- Asian LNG demand
- South and Southeast Asia LNG demand growth
- Pacific uncontracted demand by market
- Pacific LNG contestable demand & competing available supply
- Pacific LNG supply and demand
- Pacific LNG flows by source
- Global LNG availability and Pacific/ME market
- Net LNG available to Atlantic
- Russia pipe vs LNG imports to Europe
- Europe supply-demand gap - contracted volumes
- Europe supply-demand gap - uncontracted volumes
- Europe import dependency
- Europe supply demand balance
- North America LNG imports
- South America LNG imports
- US Lower 48 exports by destination
- Canada LNG exports
- Oil price forecast (Brent crude)
- Carbon (EUA) price forecast
What's included
This report contains:
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