Commodity Market Report

Global gas markets long-term outlook H2 2019: Base Case

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12 February 2020

Global gas markets long-term outlook H2 2019: Base Case

Report summary

The much-anticipated LNG oversupply has finally materialised. With 39 Mt of new LNG supply in 2019, there was always going to be too much for the market to absorb. And with Asian LNG demand growth slowing, excess LNG has flooded Northwest Europe and prices have crashed, dragging Asian LNG prices down too. With the prospects for price upside over the next two years extremely limited, the risk of US LNG underutilisation grows. Post-2020, the market will change quickly. A lack of LNG investment decisions from 2015-18 means there will be limited supply growth in early-2020s. European LNG imports will plateau and fall as LNG is diverted to meet the growing Asian LNG demand. This will lead to a brief recovery phase before a new wave of supply sets off the next cycle from 2026/27 driven by record LNG FIDs in 2019/20.

Table of contents

Tables and charts

This report includes 25 images and tables including:

  • European prices, Henry Hub and US LNG cash costs
  • Global price differentials
  • Global LNG supply-demand (un)balance
  • Global LNG supply and demand delivered to Japan (2040)
  • Coal price forecast CFR ARA
  • Pacific and Middle East LNG demand by market
  • Asian LNG demand
  • South and Southeast Asia LNG demand growth
  • Pacific uncontracted demand by market
  • Pacific LNG contestable demand & competing available supply
  • Pacific LNG supply and demand
  • Pacific LNG flows by source
  • Global LNG availability and Pacific/ME market
  • Net LNG available to Atlantic
  • Russia pipe vs LNG imports to Europe
  • Europe supply-demand gap - contracted volumes
  • Europe supply-demand gap - uncontracted volumes
  • Europe import dependency
  • Europe supply demand balance
  • North America LNG imports
  • South America LNG imports
  • US Lower 48 exports by destination
  • Canada LNG exports
  • Oil price forecast (Brent crude)
  • Carbon (EUA) price forecast

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global Gas Service - Base Case - H2 2019.xlsx

    XLSX 875.75 KB

  • Document

    Commodity prices - H2 2019.xlsx

    XLSX 782.72 KB

  • Document

    Global gas markets long-term outlook H2 2019: Base Case

    PDF 1.64 MB

  • Document

    Global gas markets long-term outlook H2 2019: Base Case

    ZIP 2.61 MB

  • Document

    global-gas-service_h2 2019_base case_comparison-to-prev-outlook.xlsx

    XLSX 184.00 KB