The much-anticipated LNG oversupply has finally materialised. With 39 Mt of new LNG supply in 2019, there was always going to be too much for the market to absorb. And with Asian LNG demand growth slowing, excess LNG has flooded Northwest Europe and prices have crashed, dragging Asian LNG prices down too. With the prospects for price upside over the next two years extremely limited, the risk of US LNG underutilisation grows. Post-2020, the market will change quickly. A lack of LNG investment decisions from 2015-18 means there will be limited supply growth in early-2020s. European LNG imports will plateau and fall as LNG is diverted to meet the growing Asian LNG demand. This will lead to a brief recovery phase before a new wave of supply sets off the next cycle from 2026/27 driven by record LNG FIDs in 2019/20.