Commodity Market Report
Global gas markets long-term outlook - LNG supply - H1 2015
Report summary
Our latest view on liquefaction project start ups. Our analysis includes a strengthened outlook for US exports, with some 60 mmtpa of L48 exports in place by 2020 and 80 mmtpa by 2025. However, we struggle to see sufficient demand for large volumes of additional greenfield LNG capacity in the Pacific basin before 2022 – thus slowing the pace of growth in LNG from East Africa in particular.
Table of contents
- Executive summary
-
Supply
-
LNG supply - operational and under construction
- Australia
- Indonesia
- Malaysia
-
Supply outages
- Indonesia
- Algeria
- Nigeria
- Egypt
- Yemen
- Kenai (USA)
- Arun and Bontang (Indonesia)
- Marsa el Brega (Libya)
- Damietta and ELNG (Egypt)
- Arzew and Skikda (Algeria)
-
Projects targeting FID
-
Near term prospects (supply projects targeting FID in 2015 and 2016)
- Atlantic Basin
- Pacific Basin
-
Longer term prospects
- North America
- East Africa
- Russia
- Australia
- East Mediterranean
- West Africa
- South East Asia
- Which projects will proceed?
-
Near term prospects (supply projects targeting FID in 2015 and 2016)
-
LNG supply - operational and under construction
-
Trade
-
Global LNG capacity
- LNG output
- Project impact
- LNG shipping
-
Global LNG capacity
-
Risks and uncertainties
- Oil Price
- Global Unforeseen Outage Risk Factor
- Pace of Australian LNG growth
- Nigeria LNG growth
- South East Asia LNG output
- Upside to modest Qatari growth
- Iran LNG potential
- North American LNG exports
- North African LNG exports
- FLNG
Tables and charts
This report includes 16 images and tables including:
- Map - LNG supply facilities (existing and under construction)
- Nominal capacity v LNG output (existing and under construction)
- Start dates of LNG supply facilities (recently commissioned and under construction)
- Shortfall below nominal capacity
- Summary of significant supply outages
- Global LNG capacity
- Atlantic potential LNG capacity - impact of market constraints
- Pacific potential LNG Capacity - impact of market constraints
- LNG vessel deliveries by capacity group vs short-term/spot charter rates
- USA Exports by destination and Panama canal flows
- Trade: Image 7
- Map - supply projects targeting FID in 2015 and 2016
- Map - longer term LNG supply prospects
- LNG supply outlook by source country
- LNG nominal capacity associated with projects targeting FID in 2015 and 2016
- LNG nominal capacity potentially available by 2030
What's included
This report contains:
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