Commodity market report
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13 Pages

Global gas markets long-term supply outlook - Norway - H1 2015


Global gas markets long-term supply outlook - Norway - H1 2015

Report summary

Wood Mackenzie's latest view on Norway's role as a major gas exporter, both in terms of its gas export potential (the inputs to our global view formulation) and the outlook for gas exports from this source (namely the outputs from our analysis).

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • Global gas markets long-term supply outlook - Norway - H1 2015 PDF - 874.16 KB 13 Pages, 4 Tables, 11 Figures
  • Global gas markets long-term supply outlook - Norway - H1 2015.xls XLS - 381.50 KB

Description

Volatility in oil markets and the growth of unconventional gas supply have created a high degree of uncertainty about future gas demand and the direction of gas prices.

This Gas Markets Long Term Outlook report forecasts future pricing, based on deep analysis of gas supply and demand fundamentals. Additionally, it addresses complex questions on gas flows, identifies future opportunities and informs fuel purchasing strategies.

Participants and investors can use this long term outlook report to understand gas markets and assess the impact of global gas dynamics and key market drivers.

Wood Mackenzie provides detailed supply, demand and price forecasts based on our integrated upstream, power, coal and LNG research. Our regional gas experts are based in the markets they analyse, providing comprehensive analyses of regional and global gas markets.

If you want to understand complex gas market dynamics and plan for the future, Wood Mackenzie is the premier resource to help you gain a clear, competitive advantage.

  • Executive summary
  • Supply
    • Europe’s second largest importer of gas, adjusting flexible volumes to market conditions
    • Aasta Hansteen is a significant new source of supply, but other investments have been delayed
    • Exploration success (including Barents Sea) is required to sustain production longer-term
  • Costs
    • Cost of marginal Norwegian supply is rising
  • Demand
  • Infrastructure
    • Pipe
      • Over 150 bcm of pipe export capacity to Europe
    • LNG
    • Tariffs
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Export potential
      • Sufficient export potential to meet NPD forecast
  • Contracts
    • Spot price linkage has increased in recent years; contract supply flexibility has decreased
  • Trade
    • Strategy
    • Market access
    • Recent Trends
      • Despite mild weather Norway exceeded NPD forecast in 2014
    • Outlook
      • Medium term
        • Norway maintains export levels and benefits from spot price exposure
      • Long term
        • Norway contributes to oversupply from 2019, new Polarled developments are delayed, YTF (including Barents) needed to sustain long-term exports
  • Risks and uncertainties

In this report there are 15 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Map - key domestic and export infrastructure
  • Supply
    • Indigenous production potential
  • Costs
    • Breakeven cost of Norway pipe supply to Europe*
  • Demand
    • Domestic demand by sector
  • Infrastructure
    • Export capacity
    • Existing export pipelines
    • Under construction pipelines
    • Possible pipelines
    • Existing LNG projects
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Available export volumes vs available export capacity
  • Contracts
    • Contracted exports vs export potential
  • Trade
    • Norway pipe and LNG exports
    • Norway production vs NPD (2013, 2014)
    • Export outlook v export potential
    • Export supply mix
  • Risks and uncertainties
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