Commodity Market Report
Global gas markets long-term supply outlook - Norway - H1 2015
Report summary
Wood Mackenzie's latest view on Norway's role as a major gas exporter, both in terms of its gas export potential (the inputs to our global view formulation) and the outlook for gas exports from this source (namely the outputs from our analysis).
Table of contents
- Executive summary
-
Supply
- Europe’s second largest importer of gas, adjusting flexible volumes to market conditions
- Aasta Hansteen is a significant new source of supply, but other investments have been delayed
- Exploration success (including Barents Sea) is required to sustain production longer-term
-
Costs
- Cost of marginal Norwegian supply is rising
- Demand
-
Infrastructure
-
Pipe
- Over 150 bcm of pipe export capacity to Europe
- LNG
- Tariffs
-
Pipe
-
Supply-demand balances
-
Export potential
- Sufficient export potential to meet NPD forecast
-
Export potential
-
Contracts
- Spot price linkage has increased in recent years; contract supply flexibility has decreased
-
Trade
- Strategy
- Market access
-
Recent Trends
- Despite mild weather Norway exceeded NPD forecast in 2014
-
Outlook
-
Medium term
- Norway maintains export levels and benefits from spot price exposure
-
Long term
- Norway contributes to oversupply from 2019, new Polarled developments are delayed, YTF (including Barents) needed to sustain long-term exports
-
Medium term
- Risks and uncertainties
Tables and charts
This report includes 15 images and tables including:
- Map - key domestic and export infrastructure
- Indigenous production potential
- Domestic demand by sector
- Export capacity
- Contracted exports vs export potential
- Breakeven cost of Norway pipe supply to Europe*
- Existing LNG projects
- Export outlook v export potential
- Export supply mix
- Existing export pipelines
- Under construction pipelines
- Possible pipelines
- Available export volumes vs available export capacity
- Norway pipe and LNG exports
- Norway production vs NPD (2013, 2014)
What's included
This report contains:
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