Commodity Market Report

Global gas markets long-term supply outlook - Norway - H1 2015

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08 July 2015

Global gas markets long-term supply outlook - Norway - H1 2015

Report summary

Wood Mackenzie's latest view on Norway's role as a major gas exporter, both in terms of its gas export potential (the inputs to our global view formulation) and the outlook for gas exports from this source (namely the outputs from our analysis).

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
    • Europe’s second largest importer of gas, adjusting flexible volumes to market conditions
    • Aasta Hansteen is a significant new source of supply, but other investments have been delayed
    • Exploration success (including Barents Sea) is required to sustain production longer-term
    • Cost of marginal Norwegian supply is rising
  • Demand
    • Pipe
      • Over 150 bcm of pipe export capacity to Europe
    • LNG
    • Tariffs
    • Export potential
      • Sufficient export potential to meet NPD forecast
    • Spot price linkage has increased in recent years; contract supply flexibility has decreased
    • Strategy
    • Market access
    • Recent Trends
      • Despite mild weather Norway exceeded NPD forecast in 2014
    • Outlook
      • Medium term
        • Norway maintains export levels and benefits from spot price exposure
      • Long term
        • Norway contributes to oversupply from 2019, new Polarled developments are delayed, YTF (including Barents) needed to sustain long-term exports
  • Risks and uncertainties

Tables and charts

This report includes 15 images and tables including:

  • Map - key domestic and export infrastructure
  • Indigenous production potential
  • Domestic demand by sector
  • Export capacity
  • Contracted exports vs export potential
  • Breakeven cost of Norway pipe supply to Europe*
  • Existing LNG projects
  • Export outlook v export potential
  • Export supply mix
  • Existing export pipelines
  • Under construction pipelines
  • Possible pipelines
  • Available export volumes vs available export capacity
  • Norway pipe and LNG exports
  • Norway production vs NPD (2013, 2014)

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global gas markets long-term supply outlook - Norway - H1 2015.xls

    XLS 381.50 KB

  • Document

    Global gas markets long-term supply outlook - Norway - H1 2015

    PDF 874.16 KB

  • Document

    Global gas markets long-term supply outlook - Norway - H1 2015

    ZIP 955.75 KB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 609.70 KB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 619.97 KB

  • Document

    Supply

    PDF 80.89 KB

  • Document

    Supply

    PDF 90.89 KB

  • Document

    Costs

    PDF 70.13 KB

  • Document

    Costs

    PDF 96.59 KB

  • Document

    Demand

    PDF 56.53 KB

  • Document

    Demand

    PDF 60.53 KB

  • Document

    Infrastructure

    PDF 101.46 KB

  • Document

    Infrastructure

    PDF 110.50 KB

  • Document

    Supply-demand balances

    PDF 58.29 KB

  • Document

    Supply-demand balances

    PDF 61.25 KB

  • Document

    Contracts

    PDF 77.18 KB

  • Document

    Contracts

    PDF 86.23 KB

  • Document

    Trade

    PDF 90.92 KB

  • Document

    Trade

    PDF 99.31 KB

  • Document

    Risks and uncertainties

    PDF 51.77 KB

  • Document

    Risks and uncertainties

    PDF 59.33 KB

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