Insight
Global gas spot prices - what will set the floor?
This report is currently unavailable
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
The combination of slower Asian LNG demand growth and low oil prices has developed stronger price convergence between gas spot prices in Asia and Europe. And looking ahead, 130 mmtpa of new supply can be seen coming into the market over the next 5 years, mostly from Australia and the US. As the global market absorbs all the new LNG, as it tries to balance, new floors for spot prices are likely to be tested. We address some of the levers that will influence global gas price floor levels. This includes demand response – coal/gas competition in Europe and additional power demand in Asia including from coal displacement. It also includes supply response – from high cost gas in China, shut-in of US LNG and Russia's behaviour. We conclude that the price of coal will be a key determinant to future gas spot prices and the potential for shut-in of US LNG.
Table of contents
- Executive Summary
- LNG oversupply is ahead, testing new floors
-
Demand
- Trigger prices for coal displacement in continental Europe are much lower than the UK
-
Supply
- Social benefits and NOC competition will restrict the scale of high cost Chinese indigenous gas shut-in
- US LNG exporters will be scrutinising their cash costs
- Behaviour of major suppliers, most notably Russia, will remain key
- Conclusions
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
-
Global gas dynamics – key short term demand and supply responses to 2021Chart 1: Gas:coal competition in UK (2015-21)Chart 2: Gas:coal competition in Germany (2015-21)
-
Chart 3: Gas:coal competition in Japan*Chart 4: Guangdong gas vs coal economics*Chart 5: US LNG economics into EuropeChart 6: US LNG cash costs into Europe
What's included
This report contains:
Other reports you may be interested in
Insight
LNG short-term webinar: November 2025
Monthly webinar covering topical LNG market themes
$1,050
Country Report
Poland upstream summary
Central and Eastern Europe's third-largest producer - Poland has a rich upstream history and has produced oil and gas for over 150 ...
$4,080
Asset Report
Peat
Peat is a coal seam gas (CSG) project on the Burunga Anticline, a structural high in the Bowen Basin, Queensland.
$3,720
