LNG short-term trade and price outlook (Q1 2024)

TTF prices have continued to tumble in February as mild weather depressed heating demand further. European gas prices remain at the bottom of the coal-to-gas switching range, which has shifted down significantly with the decline in carbon prices. Asian LNG prices remain around $1/mmbtu premium to European LNG prices, supporting longer routes on efficient ships at the margin. The disconnect between spot LNG prices and oil-indexed contract prices has widened significantly this month and could trigger some contractual reshuffling for the summer, where flexibility allows.