LNG Short-Term trade and price outlook (Q3 2023)
The looming prospect of strikes in Australia has fueled price volatility. However, the market remains fundamentally well-supplied and prepared ahead of winter. Volatility and risk premiums aside, the impact of industrial action should be contained unless it extends for several months and is combined with additional unforeseen outages and/or very cold weather. Our expectation of weak gas demand in Europe’s power sector in 2024 makes room for prices to go deeper into the coal-to-gas switching range than current forwards suggest.